The current discoveries of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have misshaped essential oil projections under intense U.S. pressure is, if real (and whistleblowers seldom step forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning atomic explosion on future global oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the opportunities of discovering brand-new reserves have the possible to throw federal governments' long-lasting planning into turmoil.
Whatever the reality, increasing long term global needs seem specific to overtake production in the next years, especially offered the high and rising expenses of establishing new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.
In such a scenario, additives and alternatives such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing costs drive this technology to the leading edge, among the richest possible production locations has been totally overlooked by financiers up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to become a significant player in the production of biofuels if enough foreign financial investment can be procured. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is made largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mainly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.
Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing manufacturer of gas.
Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and relatively scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have largely hindered their capability to money in on increasing international energy demands up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain mostly reliant for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, however their heightened requirement to create winter season electricity has actually caused autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn badly affecting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
What these three downstream countries do have however is a Soviet-era tradition of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has become a significant manufacturer of wheat. Based upon my discussions with Central Asian government authorities, offered the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have great appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower level Astana for those durable financiers happy to wager on the future, especially as a plant native to the area has actually currently proven itself in trials.
Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is attracting increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American companies already investigating how to produce it in industrial amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historical test flight utilizing camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the very first Asian provider to explore flying on fuel originated from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month examination of camelina's operational efficiency ability and potential commercial practicality.
As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil content low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's significant wheat exporter. Another bonus offer of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce approximately 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A lot (1000 kg) of camelina will consist of 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is wasted as after processing, the plant's particles can be utilized for livestock silage. Camelina silage has a particularly appealing concentration of omega-3 fats that make it a particularly fine animals feed prospect that is simply now getting recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and contends well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina might be a perfect low-input crop appropriate for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."
Camelina, a branch of the mustard household, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a new crop on the scene: archaeological proof shows it has actually been cultivated in Europe for at least 3 millennia to produce both grease and animal fodder.
Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research, revealed a vast array of results of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil material varying in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been identified to be in the 6-8 pound per acre variety, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per lb can create problems in germination to accomplish an ideal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.
Camelina's potential could allow Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has distorted the country's attempts at agrarian reform since attaining self-reliance in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government figured out that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric market. The procedure was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise purchased by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce "white gold."
By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually become self-sufficient in cotton; 5 decades later on it had actually ended up being a major exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, concentrated in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.
Try as it might to diversify, in the lack of alternatives Tashkent remains wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million heaps yearly, which brings in more than $1 billion while making up approximately 60 percent of the country's hard cash earnings.
Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet government's instructions for Central Asian cotton production mostly bankrupted the area's scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet organizers to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the region's two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient irrigation canals, leading to the significant shrinkage of the rivers' final location, the Aral Sea. The Aral, when the world's fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has actually diminished to one-quarter its initial size in one of the 20th century's worst environmental disasters.
And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University just recently described camelina's organization model to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would generate $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would amass $230."
Central Asia has the land, the farms, the irrigation facilities and a modest wage scale in contrast to America or Europe - all that's missing out on is the foreign investment. U.S. financiers have the cash and access to the expertise of America's land grant universities. What is certain is that biofuel's market share will grow gradually; less particular is who will gain the benefits of establishing it as a viable concern in Central Asia.
If the current past is anything to go by it is unlikely to be American and European investors, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.
But while the Japanese flight experiments indicate Asian interest, American financiers have the academic expertise, if they are willing to follow the Silk Road into establishing a brand-new market. Certainly anything that lessens water usage and pesticides, diversifies crop production and improves the great deal of their agrarian population will receive most mindful factor to consider from Central Asia's federal governments, and farming and vegetable oil processing plants are not only more affordable than pipelines, they can be constructed faster.
And jatropha curcas's biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.
